The Hillary Clinton Express is already lumbering down the track. Her recent trip to Los Angeles yielded professions of affection, loyalty and financial support from Hollywood’s elite should she run for president in 2016. Web sites tout her candidacy, though an official declaration is unlikely for at least a year. Old Hillary hands such as Harold Ickes have assured financial backers that the proto-campaign will be run well — at least, better than the campaign Clinton waged in 2008. And such is the scope of her appeal across Democratic ranks that handicappers have all but conceded the nomination to her, if she runs.
This conditional Clinton consensus is remarkable not only because of her popularity but also because it wouldn’t exist absent the Democratic Party’s uncharacteristic near-consensus. This party, after all, once was split on civil rights. It once tore itself asunder over the Vietnam War and maintained distinct hawkish and dovish wings straight through the 2002 congressional authorization of the invasion of Iraq.
Today, those rifts are no more. A process that began when Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act has culminated in the white South moving almost entirely into the Republican column while the remaining Democrats almost uniformly support minority rights. On matters of military intervention, there are no more Joe Lieberman Democrats: The Iraq and Afghan wars destroyed any remaining Democratic (or, for that matter, American) eagerness to intervene in kindred conflicts. Clinton’s tenure as President Obama’s secretary of state has distanced her from her initial support for the Iraq war and largely dispelled the tensions that her support created.
The issue that still divides Democrats today is economics. Their differences are most readily visible at the municipal and state levels: A number of Democratic governors and mayors have arrayed themselves against public employee unions, long a key force in turning out the Democratic vote. At the national level, the clearest sign of division was the campaign several liberal senators waged to persuade Obama to nominate Janet Yellen, rather than Larry Summers, as chairman of the Federal Reserve. To the liberals, Summers’ sin was his central role in deregulating derivatives when he served as Bill Clinton’s Treasury secretary as well as his support for repealing the Glass-Steagall Act, a change that allowed previously safe depositor banks to use those funds for speculative investments. In a larger sense, the opposition to Summers signaled the growing Democratic opposition to Wall Street liberalism — the free-trade, deregulatory perspectives that dominated Democratic economic policy during Clinton’s presidency and Robert Rubin’s tenure as Treasury secretary and that had enough sway during Obama’s first term, partly through the influence of such Rubin proteges as Summers and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, to block a serious crackdown on Wall Street.